Índice epidemiológico de vulnerabilidade aos extremos de seca: uma aplicação para o Estado do Rio Grande do Norte, 2000 e 2010

Abstract

The impacts of climate change in Brazil tend to be more severe in the northeast of the country, most affected by the impacts of drought and likely to witness even worse scenarios caused by rising temperatures, the decrease in rainfall in the region and anthropogenic action. One of the main effects of drought reflected on the state of health of the population, especially the poorest and most vulnerable people, children and the elderly. The aim of this study is to construct an epidemiological indicator of vulnerability to drought, but also propose a new methodology for calculating the indicator taking into account the socioepidemiological and hospital aspects. Another objective was to map and classify the microregions of Rio Grande do Norte (RN) according to the characteristics of risk, susceptibility and adaptive capacity using cluster analysis, based on estimates of epidemiological indicators of vulnerability to drought. To create the indicator, climatic, social, demographic, and hospital variables, morbimortality of the microregions and methodology of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were used for assigning weights to the components of vulnerability: risk, susceptibility and adaptive capacity. For the analysis, understanding and identifying vulnerable areas, statistical methods such as cluster analysis, paired t-test and spatiotemporal were used. The results showed that the microregions of Pau dos Ferros, Umarizal, Seridó Oriental and Seridó Ocidental showed the largest IEVS and also those who were at risk to drought, i.e., lower levels of rainfall. In contrast, Natal had the lowest risk to drought (0.00) and a better adaptive ability (0.96), however, attention should be given to the significant increase in mortality rates due to respiratory and heart diseases. This study identified the microregions of Rio Grande do Norte more vulnerable to drought, which should have priority when designing public actions to mitigate the impacts on public health.