Otimização do gerenciamento de riscos para sistemas espaciais com a técnica do fator de tolerância de riscos

Abstract

This research aims to develop an accessible, user-friendly, and didactic methodology for managing risks with breef project time, short operating time and lean budget. It starts with the following problem: how to adapt traditional risk management to projects of different systems, with the characteristics of small satellites? In this dissertation, small satellites are characterized, especially CubeSats, presenting a history of them and a justification for their study. Then, risk management techniques for small satellites are described, based on international standards, past case studies and an application to an ongoing project. It begins with an introduction, which describes its parameters, a theoretical foundation that describes what small satellites and risk management processes are, presenting concepts of standards applied by NASA and ESA. It then introduces the concept of the Risk Tolerance Factor (RTF), a quantitative measure of how risky a mission is. Thus, the greater the value of the RTF, the greater the risk tolerance of a mission, being able to accept risks that are more likely to occur or with a significant impact on the mission. It also presents factors that influence this tolerance, especially for missions that use small satellites. At the end of the dissertation, a comparison of the application of the approach with a pre-existing case, which used the DoD approach, is presented, as well as an application for a current case, which is CONASAT. It is concluded that the approach met the objective of providing team members with information about in which risk scenario the mission is allocated at the beginning of the mission design process, although it does not exclude the possibility of later application of the tool.