Gastos sociais municipais nordestinos sob o prisma político e fiscal : uma análise de períodos recentes

Abstract

This dissertation aimed to comparatively analyze per capita social spending in municipalities in the Northeast of Brazil in relation to local government revenue per inhabitant (whether from own resources or intergovernmental transfers). Additionally, it examined the political alignment of local administrators with state and federal government officials across the biennia 2012/2013, 2016/2017, and 2020/2021. Methodologically, the study employed a literature review that revisited economic and political aspects from a conceptual perspective, along with an econometric measurement approach based on quantile regression using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Dummy variables were also included to assess the behavior of the relationship under consideration. The research findings clearly demonstrated the strong influence of intergovernmental transfers—particularly federal transfers—on the financing of per capita social expenditures. The results indicated that the greater the economic dynamism of a municipality, the lower its fiscal dependency, and vice versa, regardless of external events. Additionally, while the dummy variables yielded few statistically significant results, the significant findings pointed to inconsistencies in social spending, suggesting political inefficiencies in the proper provision of public goods targeted at the most disadvantaged social groups.