Análise da variabilidade climática sobre a produtividade da soja no município de Bom Jesus (PI)

Abstract

The climate is still main responsible for the variations soybean productivity (Glycine max (L.) Merrill), exerting a limiting action on these agricultural systems. The bomjesuense cerrado, this culture has proved, over the years, an increase of cultivated areas, however, productivity does not keep the same pace, going through periods of oscillations. Thus, although the crop is added to high technology, culture has great vulnerability to climatic adversities. Thus, the present study aims to analyze possible trends in meteorological variables, which can influence the soybean yield in Bom Jesus. For this purpose, different datasets were used, as follows: i) two periods of daily data (1984-2014 and 1974-2014), both obtained from the National Meteorological Institute (INMET); ii) climate normals from 1961-1990 as defined by INMET; iii) local agricultural production data of soybean-year (1997/1998 to 2012/2013) obtained from the Municipal Agricultural Production (PAM) dataset, which is management by Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The analysis procedures included calculations of climate normals for 1984 to 2014 period and some statistical applications, as follows: i) the Wilcoxon test, used to evaluate differences between climate normals (1961 to 1990 and 1984 to 2014); ii) the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, in order to analyze the linear trend of agrometeorological variables (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and diurnal range of temperature; iii) cluster analysis by Ward method and the Spearman correlation test (rs) to identify the relationship between agrometeorological variable and soybean annual productivity. We adopted a statistical significance level of 5%. The results indicate changes in seasonality of the 1984-2014 climatology with respect to past climatology for all variables analyzed, except for insolation and precipitation. However, the monthly analysis of precipitation indicate negative trend during October and positive trend in December, causing a delay in start of rainy season. If this trend is persistent this result must be considered in futures definitions of the soybean crop sowing date over the region studied. With Mann-Kendall test was possible to identify positive trends with statistical significance in maximum temperature for all month forming part of soybean cycle (from November to April), which in turn tends to cause adverse effects on crop physiology, and consequently impacts on the final yield. Was identified a significant positive correlation between soybean yield and precipitation observed in March, thus precipitation deficit in this month is harmful to the soybean crop development. No statistically significant correlation was identified among maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and DTR with annual soybean productivity due these range of meteorological variables are not limiting factors in the final soybean yield in Bom Jesus (PI). It is expected that this study will contribute to propose planning strategies considering the role of climate variability on soybean crop final yield.