Crescimento econômico e emissões de CO2 nos países do BRICS: uma análise de cointegração em painel

Abstract

In recent years, a steady rise in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and its own concentration on the atmosphere put the climate change issue at the center of the global political-economic debate. Today, the world's largest emitters of CO2 are the emerging BRICS countries, which show significant economic growth and account for more than 40% of total emissions of this pollutant on the planet (EIA, 2016). In analytical terms, the study of the relationship between economic growth and pollutant emissions has been made based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (CKA) approach, which implies an shaped relationship of an inverted "U" between pollution and Income In this way, as income reaches a certain level the emissions of pollutants begin to decline, resulting an improvement in environmental quality. In this sense, the general objective of the research is to verify if there is an evidence of CKA hypothesis for the BRICS group of countries using an economic methodology of panel data cointegration. In addition to the GDP per capita variable, three more variables were added to the model: per capita energy consumption, trade flow and a dummy to capture the effects of the Kyoto Protocol on countries' emissions levels. The results of the econometric model indicated an existence of a relationship of an inverted "U" between per capita income and CO2 emissions, with inflection points of US $ 2,033.89 and US $ 2,057.61, respectively, in the FMOLS and DOLS. The per capita consumption of energy showed a positive relation with CO2 emissions, while a relation of the international trade variable was negative. In addition, the coefficient of the dummy variable, which measures the effects of the Kyoto Protocol, was not statistically significant. Thus, it is considered necessary to implement environmental policies in BRICS countries that stimulate economic growth by increasing the share of renewable sources, better energy and transactions that imply a transfer of less polluting technology to these countries. In addition, it is believed that an international agreement to reduce CO2 emissions that also includes developing countries is extremely important to reduce the level of emissions and keep the planet's temperature at a stable level.