Dinâmica da indústria brasileira no período 2002-2017: uma estimação da Lei de Kaldor - Verdoorn

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the dynamics of the Brazilian industry considering the Law of Kaldor-Verdoorn that proposes to exist a positive relation between the production and productivity. The economic literature proves from empirical data that there is a close relationship between the per capita product level of countries with the degree of industrialization and that there is also a close association between GDP and manufacturing growth in the various nations. According to Thirlwall (2005), the fastest growing countries tend to be those in which the share of industry in GDP increases faster. However, it should be noted here that, especially for underdeveloped countries, the share of industry in economic growth is of paramount importance in the promotion of employment and income. In this context, the dynamism of the industry deserves to be highlighted, as well as the incentives to increase productivity and production, as well as the relationship between the two. The work of Kaldor (1975) and Verdoorn (1949) brought to theoretical theory the theoretical basis of the positive relationship between productivity and production. As production increases, there is a strong tendency for productivity to keep pace with this movement over time, and to be valid in periods of economic expansion. Therefore, this work seeks to analyze the dynamism of Brazilian industry in the period from 2002 to 2017, testing the assumptions of the Kaldor - Verdoorn law, thus applying cointegration tests proposed by Johansen (1990) and the Granger causality test (1969) to know the long-term equilibrium relationship of the analyzed variables that are estimated in an autoregressive vector model (VAR) in a context of an error-correction vector (VECM). It was also sought to know the exact period of the structural changes of the model, through the BaiPerron test (2003), where it was possible to conclude that the variables have similar breakage dates, being the year of 2008 the most relevant and focus of analysis of this work. The results affirm that there is a positive equilibrium relation between the production of the industry and the productivity of the industrial sector, which corroborates the evidence of the Kaldor-Verdoorn’s law for the Brazilian industry in the period in question, however, it is verified that in periods of declines in production, productivity growth stems more from other factors not captured in the model, which shows that the law is only valid in periods of economic expansion. Finally, it is stated that Brazilian industry has a reasonable degree of dynamism.