Contribuições ao estudo de análises de informações dos balanços energéticos estaduais e o balanço nacional

Abstract

Measuring energy resources has a great strategic importance for any country. Factors include the social and economic growth, impacts of new technologies, environmental factors, strategic decisions on imports and exports of energy resources, among others. It is very difficult to plan cities and industrial development, in the long term, without carrying studies on energy resources and current and future demands. About 30 years ago Brazil begun to produce the National Energy Balance (BEN), a document that maps information such as primary and secondary sources, consumption by major sectors, losses, transformation centers, etc. However, due to the difficulty of obtaining data and its processing, much of the presented information are estimated. Currently the responsibility of BEN is with the EPE - Empresa de Pesquisas Energéticas, under the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME). Some states like São Paulo and Rio Grande do Sul produce annually energy balances. Others, such as Ceará and Rio Grande do Norte, have done it in the past. However, due to various factors, such as funding, its publication had been discontinued. This dissertation advocates the importance of each Brazilian states to maintain and update energy data and integrate them into the EPE in a hierarchical structure, in a bottom-up strategy, which could allow results closer to reality. However, many factors had limited the achievement of such studies, including: Sensitization of Decision Areas; Elements of Regional Articulation; Channels of Incentive and Cooperation between States; Resource Sources (such as lack of trained personnel and budgets); Methodological, Conceptual and Criteria Unification; And Systematization of Data Collection. For this, a questionnaire was prepared and distributed to those responsible for the production of BEEs. The analysis will make it possible to characterize the positive points and experiences of the states that produce balance sheets regularly and to point out the deficiencies and needs of attention to the states that, due to some factors, no longer generates the regional energy data reports. The second part of the research involves a structural analysis of BEEs in relation to BEN. The objective is to analyze possible future integration (bottom-up, i.e. bottom-up, from specific to general), from state balance to the national balance. The third part analyzes data from state energy balances from data obtained in the MME between 2000 and 2015. Neural networks, such as self-organizing maps, were used to group states with similar profiles in relation to the sets of variables analyzed (consumption by economic sector, consumption by energy sources and internal energy supply).