Trajetória escolar na educação básica nas regiões do Brasil

Abstract

Demographic study that observes the trajectory of the student using educational indicators taken from the 2010 school census from the MEC/INEP. It is believed that less than half of the students enrolled in the elementary school arrive at the fourth grade and just 20% can finish this level of education (LOMBARDI e LAMOUNIER, 2004). In addition, it takes into account that high school might not be picking up properly the graduates from elementary school. Shall mean a low probability of transition during the school trajectory of the student who may be leading school delay in the age appropriate to enter higher education (INEP, 2014). Has the objective to study the school population of the major regions of Brazil, using the multiestado methodology to determine the probabilities of transition from a student a teaching series to another during your trajectory in basic education. The methodology is based on the application of the statistical model multiestado, which calculates the probabilities of transition between sets of teaching of basic education of the Brazilian educational System, through the rates of transition (promotion, repetition, evasion and migration for the education of young and adults) and the distortion rates age/grade. The results indicated that less than half of the population school transitions between sets of teaching of basic education.Additionally, the information submitted enable the debate on the existence of factors of social and economic conditions and operating factors of the education system which may explain the low probability of the transition between sets of teaching and school life expectancy below the expected.