Bezerra, Bergson GuedesGomes, Oséas Machado2020-03-262020-03-262018-12-14GOMES, Oséas Machado. Detecção e atribuição de mudanças estruturais em séries temporais de precipitação: um contraste entre as Bacias do São Francisco e do Paraná. 2018. 70f. Tese (Doutorado em Ciências Climáticas) - Centro de Ciências Exatas e da Terra, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, 2018.https://repositorio.ufrn.br/jspui/handle/123456789/28671The São Francisco River Basin and the Paraná River Basin are two large hydrographic basins with large agricultural and electricity production capacity, among which we can highlight large hydroelectric power plants such as: Itaipu, Furnas and Porto Primavera. The areas of these basins cover large urban centers such as Curitiba, Campinas, São Paulo and parts of other States such as, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Sergipe, Alagoas and Pernambuco. The present work aims to present a methodology capable of detecting areas with homogeneous precipitation and identify points of structural breaks in time series of rainfall of these basins. The knowledge of homogeneous areas of rainfall is extremely important in trying to understand how the various meteorological systems operate in each area analyzed, as well as providing important information for decision making by public policies. On the other hand, it is also necessary to verify possible trends and points of discontinuity (structural breaks) in the time series of precipitation. The present study covers eighteen sub - basins in total, ten of the São Francisco River and eight of the Paraná River. The data are distributed in grid points with a resolution 0.5 x 0.5 degrees derived from weather observation and provided by the CPC (Climate Prediction Center). According to results, three homogeneous regions of the São Francisco River Basin (SF1, SF2, SF3) and three in the Paraná River basin (PN1, PN2, PN3) were identi ed. These regions had statistically equal rainfall averages. The areas that presented the highest and lowest precipitation rates, as well as predicted precipitation values for sites not yet sampled were veri ed using the Kriging technique. Other analyzes identi ed signi cant discontinuities (structural breaks) in the rainfall time series in eight sub - basins, three in the São Francisco River Basin and ve in the Paraná River basin, such as Urucuia, Paracatu, Alto San Francisco, Parnaíba , Grande (Paraná) and others. These breaks showed that the rainfall series did not behave homogeneously within each sub - basin, causing distinct periods with precipitation above and below the general average.Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Brazilhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/br/PrecipitaçãoAnálise de variânciaQuebras estruturaisdoctoralThesisCNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA