Lúcio, Paulo SergioCarvalho, Daniel Matos de2014-12-172010-11-072014-12-172010-05-31CARVALHO, Daniel Matos de. Downscaling estocástico para extremos climáticos via interpolação espacial. 2010. 89 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Probabilidade e Estatística; Modelagem Matemática) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, 2010.https://repositorio.ufrn.br/jspui/handle/123456789/17008Present day weather forecast models usually cannot provide realistic descriptions of local and particulary extreme weather conditions. However, for lead times of about a small number of days, they provide reliable forecast of the atmospheric circulation that encompasses the subscale processes leading to extremes. Hence, forecasts of extreme events can only be achieved through a combination of dynamical and statistical analysis methods, where a stable and significant statistical model based on prior physical reasoning establishes posterior statistical-dynamical model between the local extremes and the large scale circulation. Here we present the development and application of such a statistical model calibration on the besis of extreme value theory, in order to derive probabilistic forecast for extreme local temperature. The dowscaling applies to NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, in order to derive estimates of daily temperature at Brazilian northeastern region weather stationsapplication/pdfAcesso AbertoDistribuição Generalizada de Valores ExtremosDistribuição Generalizada de ParetoKrigagem.Generalized extreme valuegeneralized pareto distribuctionKrigagemmasterThesisCNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA::MATEMATICA::MATEMATICA APLICADA