Pinheiro, José UelitonNeves, Josemir AraújoChaves, Rosane RodriguesMendes, DavidBarreto, Naurinete de Jesus da Costa2020-06-052020-06-052014PINHEIRO, José Ueliton; NEVES, J. A.; CHAVES, R. R.; MENDES, David ; BARRETO, N. J. C.. Avaliação de modelos do CMIP5 que melhor expressam a atuação dos vórtices ciclônicos em altos níveis (VCANS) no Nordeste Brasileiro (NEB). Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física, v. 07, p. 891, 2014. Disponível em: https://periodicos.ufpe.br/revistas/rbgfe/article/view/233406. Acesso em: 01 Junho 2020. https://doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v7.5.p891-904https://repositorio.ufrn.br/jspui/handle/123456789/29163The research studied the output of climate change models that best express the actions of Upper Tropospheric Cyclonic Vortices (UTCV) in high levels in the Northeast Brazil (NEB). The UTCV were quantified by a daily occurrence for 5 years (1995-1999) in the period from October to March. The object of the study were 13 models from CMIP5/IPCC/AR5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 / Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change / Fifth Assessment Report ), compared with results from the NCEP / NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research) by means of statistical methods for choosing the model which best indicates the presence of UTCV in the NEB. The first comparative analysis was performed using the Pearson, Spearman and Kendall correlations, mean square error, normalized mean square error and efficiency and performance indices, Nash-Sutcliff (NSE), Kling-Gupta (KGE) and Index of Agreement of the Willmott (d). Then models with better performance and statistical significance for further analysis of successes and mistakes through the indices were selected: Index Proportion Correct (PC), Critical Success Index (CSI), Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Rate (FAR) and Trend Rate (BIAS). For the statistical analyzes used in the first test performed MIROC4h model showed the best rates followed by MIROC-ESM and inmCM4 respectively. In addition, further significant statistical correlation MPI-ESM-LR, MRI-CGCM3 and CSIRO-MK3-6-0. The second analysis also showed the MIROC4h with the best values ​​of PC, CSI and POD, except the BIAS that had the second best result and the FAR with the worst result in relation to the other five models considered in this phase. Thus the MIROC4h introduced himself as the most suitable model of the CMIP5 for studies of the present and future scenarios of UTCV in the NEBAttribution 3.0 Brazilhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/br/Vórtices Ciclônicos em Altos NíveisTestes Estatísticos para Análise de DesempenhoModelos de Mudanças ClimáticasCMIP5Nordeste Brasileiroarticle10.26848/rbgf.v7.5.p891-904