Andrade, Lara de Melo BarbosaSouza, Marcelo Luís de Amorim2019-05-132019-05-132018-11-19SOUZA, Marcelo Luís de Amorim. A dengue no Nordeste do Brasil: análise do espaço-temporal e dos aspectos do clima e sociossanitários. 2018. 130f. Tese (Doutorado em Ciências Climáticas) - Centro de Ciências Exatas e da Terra, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, 2018.https://repositorio.ufrn.br/jspui/handle/123456789/27086Dengue is currently considered one of the most important human diseases caused by mosquitoes in tropical and subtropical areas and has caused several social and economic impacts in Brazil, particularly on human health. The Northeast Brazil (NEB) has experienced successive epidemic outbreaks of the disease. The objective of this study was to estimate dengue incidence rates for NEB municipalities, in order to identify hotspots by the dengue spreading method in the region. The Pluviometrically Homogeneous regions of NEB were considered in the spatial analysis. It was also intended to estimate the Relative Risk (RR) of dengue epidemic rates according to the classification of the House Index (HI). And, finally, it was also aimed to identify profiles of climate and social-sanitary vulnerability to dengue incidence in the municipalities of the NEB. Data from the Ministry of Health, IBGE, PNUD and ANA were used. The data analysis period was from 2001 to 2015. The methods used were: EB, Grade of Membership (GoM), Moran’s Index, RR and the tests: t of paired samples, Pearson and Kruskal-Wallis tests. The results showed that 66.56% (in 2002), 49.73% (in 2010) and 62.19% (in 2014) of NEB municipalities registered pre-epidemic (100<IR<300) or epidemic (IR>300) dengue rates. The North and South of the Semi-arid (NS and SS) are among the areas that presented the highest rates of dengue incidence (IR> 300). In 2014, most municipalities (473) that performed LIRAa/HI were in Alert (1.00<HI<3.99) or in Risk conditions (HI>4.00). An association between HI classification and the IR (p-value <0.001) was found, indicating a RR of dengue 1.20 times greater (95%CI: 0.97-1.48; p-value:0.0803) in municipalities with HI in Alert and 1.81 times greater (95%CI: 1.43-2.29, p-value<0.001) in those with HI at risk compared to those with satisfactory HI. It was verified from the use of the GoM that 64.9% of the Northeastern municipalities presented in Profiles 2 and 3 (with high IIP and high incidence of dengue), which demonstrates the severity of the disease for the region. As for the spatial distribution of the predominant Profiles generated by the GoM, it was observed that the profile with predominance 1 (25%) (with mixed profiles PM1-12 and PM1-13) was predominant in the states of Maranhão, Piauí and Alagoas. The profile with predominance 2 (41.3%) (with the PM2-21 and PM2-23 mixed profiles) was representative in the states of Ceará, Paraíba, Rio Grande do Norte and Bahia. The predominance of profile 3 (23.6%) (with mixed profiles PM3-31 and PM3-32) was registered with greater expression in the states of Sergipe, Rio Grande do Norte, and Pernambuco.The results pointed out significant implications for the identification of areas with dengue epidemic risk trends in one of the regions of Brazil most vulnerable to climate changes.Acesso AbertoSaúde públicaDoenças endêmicasClima tropicalFatores socioeconômicosGrade of Membership (GoM)doctoralThesisCNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA: CIÊNCIAS CLIMÁTICAS