Morales, Fidel Ernesto CastroReis, Erika Fernanda Cavalcante2022-12-262022-12-262022-11-09REIS, Erika Fernanda Cavalcante. Avaliação da idade das mães dos nascidos vivos da cidade do Natal/RN, através de um modelo de série temporais para valores inteiros. Orientador: Fidel Ernesto Castro Morales. 2022. 39 f. Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso (Graduação em Estatística) - Departamento de Estatística, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, 2022.https://repositorio.ufrn.br/handle/123456789/50664The need to prepare for the future reaches different levels, both individual and corporate. The analysis of time series is an important tool, because by studying time series it is possible to infer future events. Usually, most of these analyses are performed with real numbers. However, there are several cases that need analysis for natural numbers, and this corroborates the growing search for analysis of integers. Based on this, this work will carry out statistical analyzes using the POMINAR process, which is a specific case in the model for integer numbers INAR(p). Prediction models will also be found, to determine the number of live births in the city of Natal-RN for future years, using data from SINASC (Information System on Births), through DATASUS (Department of Informatics of the Unified Health System) which was developed by DATAPREV (Company of Social Security Technology and Information). Monthly data from the years 1994 to 2019 will be used. A comparison of data predicted by the models found with the actual data obtained in the year 2020 will also be made.INARPOMINARSéries temporaisTime seriesbachelorThesisCNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA