Bezerra, Bergson GuedesTinôco, Izabelly Cristina Mendes2019-04-152019-04-152018-11-19TINÔCO, Izabelly Cristina Mendes. Perfis de vulnerabilidade sociodemográfica e agroclimatológica do semiárido brasileiro. 2018. 96f. Tese (Doutorado em Ciências Climáticas) - Centro de Ciências Exatas e da Terra, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, 2018.https://repositorio.ufrn.br/jspui/handle/123456789/26956The precipitation of the Brazilian Semi -arid (SAB) is characterized by high spatial and temporal variability, predominantly concentrated in four months of the year. And one of the main economic activities developed in the SAB is rainfed agriculture, which is heavily dependent on annual rainfall. In this way, the occurrence of almost periodic droughts makes family farming an economic activity of great risk. Thus,the main objective of the study is to create profiles of municipal agricultural vulnerability of the SAB taking into account the aspects of precipitation and socio-demographic patterns of the region. Data from different sources, such as the daily data from 1978 to 2010, provided by GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Center) were used. These precipitation data were used to characterize areas with homogeneous precipitation in the SAB. The areas with homogeneous precipitation were identified using Clusteranalysis. In order to create vulnerability profiles, the Grid of Membership (GoM) tool was used, which included the homogeneous groups of precipitation, as well as social, economic, demographic and agricultural indicators collected in the IBGE Automatic Recovery System (SIDRA) and SIGSAB for the period 1978 to 2016. Four SAB regions with homogeneous precipitation, identified as SAB I, SAB II, SAB III and SAB IV, were identified. SAB I covers the eastern region and a northern part of Minas Gerais and is themost rainy, while SAB III is the driest and covers the north of Bahia, east of Piauí, the western part of Pernambuco and Alagoas, and the central part of Paraíba and Rio Grande do Norte, which corresponds to 33% of the SAB. Regarding the vulnerability profiles, 3 pure profiles were identified, and Profile 1 corresponds to the SAB I region, which is the rainiest and the one with the best social and agricultural conditions. In this profile we find the highest yields of beans, but the lowest number of people employed in agriculture. The main economic activity of this profile is the service sector.The profile 2 includes the driest regions (SAB II and SAB III) had the worst indicators in the social, economic and agricultural context, with lower per capita income as HDI and GDP. It has high mortality rates and people included in the Bolsa Família Program, as well as households with inadequate sanitary sewage. This profile has the largest share of the population employed in family agriculture. The poor social indicators of this region are probably associated with the poor performance of family agriculture in the region, due to the fact that it is less rainy region of SAB and its soils are predominantly crystalline. The so-called medium vulnerability profile was profile 3 which contemplates the northern sector of the SAB. This profile has social and agricultural conditions in medium-sized situations, and there are medium yields of beans and corn. The mixed profile 1.2 (PM12) with higher maize productivity on average (710.7 kg / ha), with a predominance of Profile I, but with certain characteristics of Profile II, with a minimum of 154.1 and a maximum of 1273.9 Kg / ha The profile holds the high percentages of people employed in the agricultural sector with activities in family agriculture, but it is found in percentages of jobs that practice rainfed agriculture. PM12 includes the municipalities of Boa Vista / PB, Caturité / PB, Jussiape / BA, Berilo / MG, Francisco Badaró / MG and Serranópolis de Minas / MG. These municipalities carry human development indicators (HDI), especially Boa Vista / PB, which is the highest index with 0.65% when they are to the others.In view of the results, it is concluded that the regions of SAB II and SAB III are the most vulnerable to climate change because they are the most dry and subject to severe droughts, very poor soils and their respective economies based on family farming. For these regions, according to the Brazilian Panel on Climate Change, rainfall is projected to decrease by upto 20% and temperatures up to 2 ° C by the end of the century, making it more arid.Acesso AbertoVariabilidade climáticaVulnerabilidade agrícolaVulnerabilidade climáticaGoMdoctoralThesisCNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA: CIÊNCIAS CLIMÁTICAS