Lima, Kellen CarlaSantos, Nicorray de Queiroz2022-05-202022-05-202021-11-29SANTOS, Nicorray de Queiroz. O clima e o planejamento energético no Nordeste do Brasil. 2021. 89f. Tese (Doutorado em Ciências Climáticas) - Centro de Ciências Exatas e da Terra, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, 2021.https://repositorio.ufrn.br/handle/123456789/47237The water scarcity and abundance of the wind energy resource in Northeast Brazil constitutes a relevant topic for the study focused on energy planning. Currently, electric energy is treated as a sensitive input in supply chain and therefore, despite considerable tradition on the use this matrix, electric energy presents considerable restrictions in domestic scenario, due to limitations of the availability of water resources. Its intrinsic relationship with the climate precedes need for a new matrices to emerge as a sigh of complementarity. In this way, the general objective of the research was to identify a influence of climate on the power generation in Northeast Brazil. The doctoral thesis is divided into two articles. In the first, were identified relevant climatic variables that influence hydroelectric generation. The monthly data used were the streamflow (period from 1964 to 2017), useful volume of Sobradinho Dam, Tropical Atlantic Dipole, sea surface temperature anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific, precipitation, power generation, energy load and energy imports between 2000 and 2017 annual periods. The methodology used was based on statistical inference, principal component analysis and dynamic regression model. The results showed a 30% reduction in the streamflow upstream of the surfy Reservoir passing from 2,027 m3 · s −1 to 1,428 m3 · s −1 . Using the scores of principal component analysis in the dynamic linear regression model, there was a reduction in generation by the hydro source by up to 40%. In the second article aimed to analyze the behavior of winds in the countryside of Northeast Brazil, related to index oceanic and climate and their impact on power density in the period of 2013 to 2020. For that were applied the stochastic Weibull model and dynamics regression model with monthly windspeed data observed from anemometric towers at 80 meters and 10 meters in height in a region of complex terrain of 2013 to 2020. Particularly in 2016 and 2020, there was a significant negative influence on power density with El Niño and Atlantic Dipole, respectively. Decreasing trends were confirmed for windspeed time series at 80 and 10 meters and also for the Atlantic Dipole. In addition to the effect of seasonality incorporated into the regression model, it was observed that windspeed intensity depends on atmospheric pressure, air humidity and ambient temperature. Thus, it is concluded that climate is an integrated part of the energy planning process and must be used in analyzes related to sources of electricity generation that depend exclusively on natural resources such as streamflow, precipitation, windspeed, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity of air, temperature and densities of air and water, especially for the hydro and wind energy matrix, the central theme of this work, thus contributing to an adequate energy transition.Acesso AbertoClimatologiaPlanejamento energéticoRegressão dinâmicaAnálise de componente principaldoctoralThesis