Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências Contábeis
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Master Thesis Efeitos da condição financeira governamental na probabilidade de reeleição de prefeitos brasileiros(Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, 2022-12-19) Cardoso, Ricelliano de Souza; Lima, Severino Cesário de; Vieira, Luís Manuel Esteves da Rocha; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7850-7838; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6524384879855273; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6034-4409; http://lattes.cnpq.br/3365532108455925; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5310620657960183; Gomes, Anailson Márcio; Diniz, Josedilton AlvesThe preservation of financial health is essential for sustainable and independent government management, however, in recent years, several Brazilian municipalities have been facing financial problems. Studies on political cycles have already demonstrated the relationship of fiscal management as an instrument of self-promotion for electoral purposes, showing that the fiscal structure has considerable potential to be used to achieve political-electoral incentives, especially re-election. In view of this, considering the potentially opportunistic behavior of the rulers, presupposed by the theory of political cycles, and the need for an efficient and effective economic-financial management for the good financial health of the municipalities, this research aimed to investigate the effects of the financial condition on the probability for reelection of mayors. For this, a sample of 568 municipalities was composed and the period between 2016 and 2020 was analyzed. For empirical analysis, the logistic regression technique was used. The results of the study indicated that the municipality classified as having a solid financial condition presents an increase in the probability of reappointment of the respective municipal mayors by about 0.09%, confirming the hypothesis that the more solid the financial condition, the greater the probability of reappointment of the mayor. On the other hand, the fragile financial condition results in a reduction in the probability of reappointment of municipal mayors by approximately 0.14%, also confirming the second hypothesis that predicted a lower probability of reappointment of mayors in municipalities with the weakest financial condition. These findings contribute to the literature by making it possible to understand how the government's financial condition impacts the political environment and consequent policy decisions. It also adds new perspectives to social control, ratifying the need for accountability of public managers and preventive, sustainable and strategic actions to improve financial solvency through technical and scientific criteria. Finally, it contributes to the electoral process insofar as it helps to understand the maturity level of the average Brazilian voter to value or punish rulers with an opportunistic bias who prefer more noticeable spending as opposed to the most necessary.