Política fiscal e crescimento econômico: uma análise do resultado fiscal estrutural para o Brasil no período 1995-2017

Abstract

The present work aims to investigate the behavior of the discretionary fiscal policy practiced in Brazil between 1995 and 2017 and its impact on the long term economic growth of the Brazilian economy in the period. Initially, an analysis will be made of the overall performance of the economy and the main macroeconomic indicators. Then, a review of the main orthodox and heterodox theories on fiscal policy and economic growth is carried out, as well as a literature review on the evolution of fiscal policy in Brazil. In order to verify the behavior of the discretionary fiscal policy (discretionary fiscal impulse), the structural fiscal result will be calculated, that is, the fiscal result without considering the fiscal impact of the automatic stabilizers, which vary automatically due to cyclical fluctuations in GDP. Thus, the orientation of discretionary fiscal policy in relation to the direction of the impulse (expansionist or contractionary) and the cycle (anticyclical or procyclical) can be analyzed. Furthermore, from the calculated structural fiscal indicators, we will perform an evaluation of the impact of structural fiscal shocks on Brazilian economic growth in the period, through the estimation of impulse response functions, based on the methodology of Autoregressive Vectors (VAR), more specifically through the estimation of a model with Error Correction Vector (VEC), which evidenced the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables included in the model.