O efeito da implantação da Lei de Promoção de Praças dos militares estaduais no equilíbrio financeiro e atuarial do regime próprio de previdência social do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte

Abstract

This present work had as proposal to investigate the effect of implanting the promotion law of the State Junior Military Personnel on the actuarial and financial balance of the state social security regime. In this study, a sample constituted by active and retired junior military police officers in 2017 was used. In this work, projections of the population were made along the time in order to verify its evolution on the reasons for outgoing: passage to retirement (remunerated military reserve), retirement (invalidity) and death, as well as the difference between incoming (contribution taxes) and spending (benefits). Those projections were made by using demographic and statistic techniques and even the computational program RStudio on its modeling. The modeling was done through microsimulation by using a mathematical model to classify the members as to the form of their outgoing from the Cohort. The obtained results showed that through population projections already starts demonstrating deficit to the social security system and remains growing through the time, even taking into consideration only benefits such as retirement, and disregarding pensions from death and short-term benefits such as health insurance and maternity pay.