Análise e modelagem de extremos de precipitação no bioma Pantanal

Abstract

Extreme precipitation events are occurring with greater frequency and intensity, resulting in floods and severe droughts. The precipitation variable has great relevance for the management of water resources and for socioeconomic activities, especially farming. The Pantanal is a large freshwater reservoir, where this reservoir serves for water supply and climate conservation, and its main economic activity is agriculture and cattle ranching. Studying the rainfall behavior is important to ensure the conservation of its biodiversity, land use planning, and also to prevent impacts caused by precipitation extremes. This work aims to model rainfall extremes in the Pantanal biome, using daily rainfall data from the cities of Cáceres-MT and Nhecolândia-MS, located in the northern and southern Pantanal, respectively, and also to estimate the levels and return period. For this the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) was used, with the threshold based on the 95th percentile. The modeling was done in seasonal periods for both locations. Through the results it was possible to observe that the largest extreme precipitation events occurred in summer, the rainy period of the region. It was also observed the occurrence of precipitation with values above 120 mm for the years 1999, 2003, 2005, 2010 in Cáceres, and during the years 2001, 2017, 2018 in Nhecolândia. From the levels and time of returns it is expected in summer in Caceres that at least once the maximum daily precipitation in a 10-year period will equal or exceed 113.63 mm. While in Nhecolândia it is expected that at least once the maximum daily precipitation will be greater than or equal to 102.72 mm.