Modelo de apoio à decisão para desativação ou prolongamento da vida útil de parques eólicos onshore

Abstract

The number of onshore wind farms reaching the end of their useful life in various parts of the world is on the increase and requires their owners to make a decision on whether or not to continue operating them. The present thesis aims to develop a decision-making model regarding the extension of the useful life or deactivation of onshore wind farms. The research method included four stages: 1) construction of the state of the art based on theoretical research narrative and systematic literature review, 2) systematization of the factors and variables that influence decision-making at the end of the life cycle of onshore wind farms, 3) conceptual modeling, and 4) validation of the decision-making model by means of a questionnaire survey with managers of wind farms in operation and a focus group with experts. As a result, the model presents eleven possible alternatives inserted in two scenarios: the deactivation and completion of operational activities and the extension of useful life of the farm. The factors and variables that influence the decision-making process are: external factors (national energy guidelines, public policies and regulatory aspects, logistical and infrastructural aspects, and technological development in the sector) and internal factors (economic-financial aspects, operational aspects, environmental aspects, regional aspects, and human resources). The model also includes: 1) the process for developing the technical and economic feasibility study to support the decision to decommission or extend the useful life of onshore wind farms, and 2) the relational approach to conducting the technical and economic feasibility study. It is concluded that wind farms that reach maturity of more than 12 years should be studied in order to make a decision on whether to decommission or continue their operation, taking into account the factors internal and external to the wind farm included in the model. We believe that the proposal in this thesis can serve as a reference for academic studies as well as for decision-makers at wind farms in operation.