Investigando os padrões de teleconexão associados à estação chuvosa e analisando a homogeneidade e a tendência em índices extremos de precipitação no norte do nordeste do Brasil

Abstract

A first study used the hidden Markov model in this dissertation to describe the daily rainfall occurrence and intensity at four meteorological stations in the Metropolitan Region of Fortaleza in the Northern Northeast Brazil (NNB) and the teleconnection patterns that influence precipitation regime during the rainy season (February, March, April, and May) from 1975 to 2013. A model with four hidden states was associated with climatic conditions: very rainy (1), rainy (2), less rainy (3), and dry (4), satisfactorily agreeing with the interannual variability of the rainy season in this region. State 2 was the only one that showed a statistical trend, indicating a probable decrease in the occurrence of precipitation in the rainy season. It was also shown that the meteorology associated with states 2 and 4 is strongly related to the El Niño-South Oscillation and the North Atlantic tripole and is intrinsically conditioned by the large-scale atmospheric patterns of the Northern Hemisphere. All of these mechanisms modulated the displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) southward (state 2) or northward (state 4), affecting the occurrence of precipitation in the NNB. State 1 was distinguished by the influence of the Atlantic Meridional Mode and the ITCZ displacement further south, while state 3 was identified by the absence of teleconnection patterns. A second study investigated the homogeneity and trend of eleven extreme precipitation indices from a daily data set of 84 rain gauges in the state of Ceará, located in the NNB, from 1974 to 2018, on the annual and seasonal time scales. The data were initially submitted to the gap-filling and quality control processes. Most precipitation series were classified as "useful," and dry day precipitation indices were more susceptible to breaks than rainy day variables for homogeneity. The significant break years in the series agreed well with the El Niño and La Niña events, suggesting a further investigation of this possible connection. The precipitation indices for rainy and dry days presented mostly decreasing and increasing trends, respectively, indicating a decline in the rainfall regime in Ceará, mainly in the central-eastern, northwestern, and southern regions, in the annual and rainy seasons. The LOWESS curve showed changes in almost all series during the 1980s and 1990s, coinciding with the homogeneity breaks and the years of severe droughts in the region. The correlation coefficients were strong and significant between all precipitation indices and the other variables, seeming to induce changes in total rainfall.