Fortalecendo raízes: (i)mobilidade populacional e resiliência no semiárido nordestino

Abstract

Although the Northeast is a region where there is still a significant loss of population, it also records the largest volume of 'never migrants', especially in the interior municipalities. According to the 2010 Demographic Census, around 10 million people living in the Northern Semiarid region, equivalent to 70.3% of the total population, had never undertaken migration from or inside the region. This shows that immobility in the Semiarid region is greater than one might imagine, which may demonstrate that the ability to migrate is not available to everyone, as it requires a minimum level of human, social and physical capital, but may also reflect a structure of resilience developed in the place of birth. The first explanation tends towards the perspective of vulnerability of a population that does not migrate despite being exposed to risks, configuring a “trapped population”. The other, on the other hand, tends towards the perspective that other adaptation strategies may be more important in relation to migration. In this sense, elements such as supplementing family income and water security, whether for consumption or production, can jointly play the role of making the population resilient, especially those who live in the countryside, where conditions are more arid, not only from an environmental perspective, but also from a socioeconomic perspective. The role that public institutions and policies play is essential to this resilience. Adaptive management by them must consider both the social and ecological focus, aspects that, in the context of the Semiarid, are identified in the Cisternas Program, a global reference as a climate adaptation strategy, which seeks to increase water and food security, in addition to low impact to the ecosystem. Given this, the question arises: how does resilience contribute to immobility in the Northern Semiarid? More specifically, it is worth asking: is population immobility related to access to cisterns? Are individual and family issues, linked to the life cycle, and institutional issues related to the immobility of country people? What is the impact of the Cisterns Program along with other social programs on the resilience of country people? In addition to the bibliography researched, to help answer these questions, it was used cross-sectional databases, such as the Demographic Censuses (2000 and 2010), and longitudinal databases, such as the CIDACS Cohort of 100 Million Brazilians (Center for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health) of Fiocruz Bahia. These questions guided the essays that make up this thesis and support the view that the backlands are not only vulnerable, but also resilient. Given his experience of working in the countryside, “o sertanejo é, antes de tudo, um forte”, but he continues to need social policies that enhance his strength, in the face of social disadvantages that remain, as well as insecurities that become pronounced with climate change.