Fatores determinantes na gestão previdenciária dos regimes próprios no estado do Rio Grande do Norte

Abstract

Given the debate about the recurring imbalance in social security accounts and its impact on public accounts, this study seeks to identify which factors influence the social security management of the Social Security Regimes (RPPS) adopted by municipalities in the State of Rio Grande do Sul. Norte, based on the Social Security Situation Index (ISP) - extracted from the Social Security Secretariat database -, we intend to verify which variables determined the situation of the state's social security entities in the sample period from 2019 to 2022. For the analysis, the research uses a quantitative and descriptive approach, using the logistic regression technique, using unbalanced panel data. In summary, it can be stated that the result of the regression showed that of the 12 explanatory variables, only “Certificate of Social Security Regularity” and “Total Income” were statistically relevant, indicating that if the RPPS has “CRP” it is 20.90 your chance of achieving a “C” grade is greater and every 1.0066 times the unit of million increased in the ratio between your revenue and the ratio of your population to the mass of insured people, you will achieve the highest grade achieved within the analysis. Furthermore, the general result of the RPPS in Rio Grande do Norte for the period in question was deficient, since, in 2020, the balance was R$-3,453.46 million and, in 2021, R$-2,302.57 million. In any case, the results found in the present study lead to the perception of a deficient social security situation in the RPPS in Rio Grande do Norte and, for this reason, require good management as a necessary condition for improving the sustainability of these entities.