Dinâmica migratória e trajetória acadêmica no ensino superior: o caso dos/as estudantes da Universidade Integração Internacional da Lusofonia Afro-Brasileira

Abstract

The analysis of migratory dynamics between academic programs in higher education is essential for understanding the factors that impact students’ academic trajectories and for informing the development of policies aimed at retention and academic success. These transitions reflect individual choices influenced by interests, social conditions, and institutional structures, with significant implications for both students and universities. By examining how students distribute and redistribute themselves among programs, it is possible to identify internal migration patterns, assess the attractiveness of different fields of study, and propose strategies that promote course completion.This dissertation aims to analyze the inter-program migratory dynamics and academic trajectories of students at the Universidade da Integração Internacional da Lusofonia Afro-Brasileira (UNILAB). The research seeks to understand student mobility patterns within the university, identifying similarities or analogies between fields of knowledge with higher and lower migration rates. Additionally, it explores how academic trajectories develop over time, considering aspects such as regular completion time, dropouts, and retention. The Multi-State Method is used to map student transitions from one academic year to another throughout the analyzed period.The specific objectives of this study include: i) constructing an origin-destination matrix; ii) calculating immigration and emigration rates; iii) identifying which programs gain and lose the most students; iv) calculating and analyzing the academic migration efficiency index; v) calculating and analyzing transition probabilities between academic years for the two programs that lose the most and the two that gain the most students; vi) calculating and analyzing the academic life expectancy of the selected programs. To investigate inter-program migration dynamics, an origin-destination matrix analogous to those used in migration studies was constructed. Based on the generated indicators, two programs with the highest academic immigration rates and two with the lowest rates were selected. Academic trajectory analysis was conducted using the Multi-State Method applied to the four selected programs, generating multi-state survival tables to estimate transition probabilities and academic life expectancy. The results indicate that Nursing and Biological Sciences attract the highest number of students, while Humanities and Physics have lower attractiveness in terms of academic immigration. Once again, Nursing and Biological Sciences stand out for having the highest transition probabilities, whereas programs such as Physics and Humanities exhibit lower transition probabilities. Moreover, the academic life expectancy in the analyzed programs exceeds the regular completion time, suggesting possible factors that prolong students' academic journeys. This is a key insight for future investigations on the subject through qualitative research. These findings offer an opportunity to explore the reasons behind both student attraction and lower retention, contributing to the development of more effective academic support strategies.