Fatores explicativos da capacidade de pagamento dos municípios brasileiros, tendo como indicador a CAPAG/STN

Abstract

The classification of the analysis of the payment capacity of the States, the Federal District and the Municipalities claiming a guarantee or guarantee from the Union is carried out based on the indicator called CAPAG, prepared by the National Treasury Secretariat (STN). This investigation aims to highlight among a set of factors, which explain the payment capacity of Brazilian municipalities, using the CAPAG/STN indicator as a proxy. Based on the theoretical perspective of the Public Choice Theory and the governmental financial condition, fiscal factors, personal characteristics of mayors and environmental factors that can explain the payment capacity of Brazilian municipalities were selected. Data from 4,516 municipalities in the year 2020 were used. The others were excluded due to lack of data. Statistical analysis was performed using logistic regression, using information available on the websites of the National Treasury Secretariat (STN), Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and Superior Electoral Court (TSE). The results revealed as explanatory factors: the limit of the total expenditure with personnel of the Executive Branch, the limit of the consolidated net debt, the limit of internal and external credit operations; the commitment of cash availability with remaining payables and other financial obligations; in addition to the characteristics of the managers, such as age (over 59 years old) and political experience, the result obtained in the SICONFI ranking, GDP per capita, territorial size (small, medium and large municipalities when compared to small size I) and location (the municipalities of the Southeast and South regions in relation to those of the Northeast). As a theoretical contribution, the investigation advances in the literature by presenting with novelty variables of fiscal indicators, SICONFI ranking, age and gender of managers as explanatory factors of the ability to pay. For voters, the survey contributes to the understanding of factors that can signal an improvement in the choice of future public managers.