Estimativa de Balanço de água na floresta Amazônica no final da primeira metade do século XXI utilizando as simulações do CMIP5

Abstract

There is a large variation in the present climate and projections of precipitation over the Amazon due to climate change, suggesting that current climate models may be leaving to represent important aspects of the dynamics of the generation of precipitation in this region. It is important to understand the causes of these variations since rainfall is a key aspect of the water cycle and the carbon balance. The goal of the proposed work is to estimate the water balance in the Amazon in the present climate (1986-2005) and future (2031-2050). The data of monthly precipitation and temperature are available in grid point and were obtained from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU, observed data), as well as simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) numerical models. To calculate evapotranspiration, we used the methodology proposed by Thornthwaite (1948), which depends only on monthly temperature and this calculation is required for the water balance. Apart from this calculation was obtained ensemble of models for evaluating the skill of the same. The results showed that the models are able to represent the seasonality of the variables used in the study region. There is a correlation between the variables of the models and the observed data. However, in the dry season, the models underestimate precipitation. The temperature display high dispersion among the models compared to the observed data. The water balance in climates analyzed showed that there is excess of water in the first six months and in the remaining months, there is a deficit of water in the Amazon.