Data-driven study of the COVID-19 pandemic via age-structured modelling and prediction of the health system failure in Brazil amid diverse intervention strategies

Silva, Askery Alexandre Canabarro Barbosa da; Tenório, Elayne; Martins, Renato; Martins, Laís; Brito, Samuraí Gomes de Aguiar; Araújo, Rafael Chaves Souto

Data-driven study of the COVID-19 pandemic via age-structured modelling and prediction of the health system failure in Brazil amid diverse intervention strategies

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dc.contributor.author	Silva, Askery Alexandre Canabarro Barbosa da
dc.contributor.author	Tenório, Elayne
dc.contributor.author	Martins, Renato
dc.contributor.author	Martins, Laís
dc.contributor.author	Brito, Samuraí Gomes de Aguiar
dc.contributor.author	Araújo, Rafael Chaves Souto
dc.date.accessioned	2020-09-20T18:03:40Z
dc.date.available	2020-09-20T18:03:40Z
dc.date.issued	2020-07-30
dc.description.resumo	In this work we propose a data-driven age-structured census-based SIRD-like epidemiological model capable of forecasting the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil. We model the current scenario of closed schools and universities, social distancing of people above sixty years old and voluntary home quarantine to show that it is still not enough to protect the health system by explicitly computing the demand for hospital intensive care units. We also show that an urgent intense quarantine might be the only solution to avoid the collapse of the health system and, consequently, to minimize the quantity of deaths. On the other hand, we demonstrate that the relaxation of the already imposed control measures in the next days would be catastrophic	pt_BR
dc.identifier.citation	CANABARRO, Askery; TENÓRIO, Elayne; MARTINS, Renato; MARTINS, Laís; BRITO, Samuraí; CHAVES, Rafael. Data-driven study of the COVID-19 pandemic via age-structured modelling and prediction of the health system failure in Brazil amid diverse intervention strategies. Plos One, [s.l.], v. 15, n. 7, p. 0236310, 30 jul. 2020. Disponível em: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0236310. Acesso em: 04 set. 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0236310. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0236310.	pt_BR
dc.identifier.doi	10.1371/journal.pone.0236310.
dc.identifier.issn	1932-6203
dc.identifier.uri	https://repositorio.ufrn.br/jspui/handle/123456789/30121
dc.language	pt_BR	pt_BR
dc.publisher	Public Library of Science	pt_BR
dc.rights	Attribution 3.0 Brazil	*
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/br/	*
dc.subject	COVID-19	pt_BR
dc.subject	Pandemic	pt_BR
dc.title	Data-driven study of the COVID-19 pandemic via age-structured modelling and prediction of the health system failure in Brazil amid diverse intervention strategies	pt_BR
dc.type	article	pt_BR