Transmissão vertical da sífilis no Brasil: análises baseadas em ciência de dados na saúde pública

Abstract

This study examines the shortcomings of the Clinical Protocol and Therapeutic Guidelines (PCDT) for the management of gestational and congenital syphilis in Brazil, demonstrating that, in addition to the limitations of the protocol itself, there are also serious structural failures in the healthcare system. The research aims to prove that the inefficacy of the PCDT, combined with a lack of integration between levels of care and health surveillance, contributes to the increase in vertical transmission rates of syphilis. Using Stochastic Petri Nets (SPN) modeling and data from SINAN, treatment and diagnostic scenarios were simulated, revealing critical bottlenecks such as inadequate treatment for pregnant women and insufficient case monitoring. The study highlights that the failure to apply the guidelines, alongside poor prenatal care and a lack of proper training for healthcare professionals, is one of the greatest challenges in controlling congenital syphilis in the country.