Previsão de lucros nas fases dos ciclos econômicos: evidências das firmas de capital aberto do Brasil

Abstract

Considering the role of market analysts as intermediaries of information between companies and investors, as agents capable of reducing information asymmetry and contributing to the functioning of the capital market, this research project aims to analyze the influence of economic cycles on forecasts of earnings reported by market analysts. For this purpose, information was collected on earnings forecasts published by market analysts and accounting and financial information on companies that trade their shares on B3, as well as information regarding the economic environment during the period from 2010 to 2021, through the database data from Eikon Refinitiv. The properties of earnings forecasts to be tested in this study are: (a) forecast accuracy and (b) forecast bias (pessimism/optimism), while economic cycles were measured through GDP variations, to classify cycles into four phases: expansion, recession, contraction and recovery, according to Schumpeter (1939). For data analysis, estimation of four econometric models was performed using the technique of statistical modeling of unbalanced panel data. The results indicate that market analysts' earnings forecasts are sensitive to economic cycles. The results indicate that the information is more accurate in periods of economic upturn (recovery and expansion), being even stronger in the period of economic recovery. They also pointed out that during the period of economic recession, forecasts are more optimistic.