Estudo de caso: temperatura média mensal de regiões do litoral e semiárido do Nordeste Brasileiro

Abstract

In this research is shown several results of studies in climate variables through the techniques of time series analysis and wavelet transform. The analyzed data are from reanalysis data from the Center For National Environmental Forecasts - NCEP where covers the coastal regions and semi arid Brazilian northeastern (NEB) at 850 millibar (mbar) pressure level. The data represents the latitude 5° and 7° and longitude 35 ° and 32.5 ° positions for the coastal and latitude 5° and 7° and longitude 35 ° and 37.5 ° positions for the semi arid, the representative point is within 5s and - 35w. These values are in Natal's geographically area ( Coastline ) and in the country side of the Rio Grande do Norte State for climatological analyzes of temperature (°C) whereupon are related to the period 1964-2009. The goal of this study is to identify in greater detail, temporal patterns,intensity and periodicity of monthly and annual temperature oscillations for coastal and semi arid Brazilian northeastern regions applying Morlet's continuous wavelet transform for different time scales and identifying dominant peaks in seasonal variability , as well as identifying intra and inter annual variability along the time series data in this study. Furthermore, this study also shows the results of the time series modeling to identify bias and seasonality about the features of the analyzed data, making predictions and relating them to the outcome of the time-scale relations.