Efeitos dos ciclos políticos e ideologias partidárias na receita corrente dos estados brasileiros de 2000 a 2022

Abstract

The study analyzes the current revenue of Brazilian states between the years 2000 and 2022 to determine whether it was affected by the relationship between political cycles and party ideology. The methodology employed includes a panel data analysis to examine the dynamics of revenue collection in the states, considering cyclical variations in political ideologies that influence governance. The results indicate that the collection of own-source current revenue in Brazilian states is influenced by electoral cycles and the political ideology of the governors. On average, there was an increase of approximately 5% in deflated own-source current revenue in Brazilian states during election years, suggesting that electoral cycles may lead to opportunistic policies aimed at improving public perceptions of fiscal management for electoral gains. On the other hand, left-wing ideology of the governors is associated with a 7.5% reduction in revenue collection, corroborating literature that suggests lower fiscal efficiency in leftwing governments compared to right-wing ones. Additionally, the effect of the interaction between ideology and variations in per capita GDP revealed that states governed by the left achieve higher revenue through transfers but exhibit less favorable economic performance. These findings reinforce the relevance of ideological variations and the electoral calendar in state revenue collection, aligning with the theories of Partisan and Opportunistic Models. Contributively, the study adds to the knowledge and characterization of fiscal management in Brazilian states, providing an empirical basis for the formulation of fiscal policies.