Validação de um modelo climático simplificado adaptado para simular os efeitos do aumento da concentração de CO2 associados à teoria dos raios cósmicos galácticos

Abstract

This research had as main proposal the establishment and simulation of the Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) role on the global energy balance in the Earth’s atmosphere, considering the performance of carbon dioxide (CO2) individually and together with the GCR fluxes. In this way, a modified version of the Global Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) climate model was developed, making it possible to simulate new scenarios. The new model is being called GREB-GCR. The results suggest that the joint action of GCR and CO2, Experiment 20 (EXP20), presented a better representation on the surface temperature when compared to the exclusive action of CO2, Experiment 12 (EXP12). This fact is mainly evidenced on the oceans. It was identified from the root mean square error (REQM) that the EXP20 presented a spatially reduction of the error on the tropical region while compared to the EXP12. However, it is noteworthy that in both experiments the GREB-GCR model presented more significant errors on high altitude and polar regions