Ensaios sobre demografia econômica: estrutura etária, janela de oportunidade e desempenho econômico no Semiárido Setentrional

Abstract

This thesis analyzes the spatial dynamics of the age structure and the demographic window of opportunity; and estimates the effects of these structures on the economic performance of the Northern Semiarid (SemSet). It consists of four essays. The first characterizes the evolution of the age structure and of the resulting demographic window, using the Formal Employment Index (IEF), comparing SemSet with Southern Semiarid (SemMerid) and the rest of the country (1970-2022). The second maps the spatial dependence of this process between the municipalities of SemSet in 2022, via Local Indicators of Spatial Association, and describes the evolution of formal employment and the IEF, considering a young SemSet and an aging one (2000-2022). The third discusses variations in formal employment and remuneration in the municipalities of SemSet, comparing the contexts of shock (2020) and post-shock of the pandemic (2021) with the previous one (2019). The fourth essay estimates the effect of age structure on GDP per capita (proxy for economic performance), using lag and spatial autoregressive error models for the years 2000, 2010 and 2021. Although with different historical patterns, it was found that in SemSet, SemMerid and the rest of the country, both the population growth rates, and the age structure converged. The window in SemSet appeared around 2005, some fifteen years after it was characterized outside the semi-arid region. The evolution of the IEF suggested: i) that the “bonus” materialized moderately until 2014, when it was squandered; ii) the interregional differential was maintained: in 2000, the IEF outside the semi-arid region was three times that observed in SemSet (8.79%, compared to 26.46%). In 2021, although smaller, the gap remained the same (17.11%, compared to 37.81%); iii) fragility in the intraregional scale strata; in 2021 it was 12.37% in the young SemSet and 11.80% in the aging one, denoting poor use of the window of opportunity. The third identified a low spatial correlation in the variations of employment and remuneration in both 2020 and 2021. Despite heterogeneity, municipalities with positive formal employment variation rose from 234 (2020) to 618 (2021), indicating recovery. Finally, the fourth essay estimated that a 10% reduction in youth dependency accounted for, on average, 6.79%, 6.76%, and 8.72% of the increase in per capita GDP in 2000, 2010, and 2021, respectively. Conversely, a 10% increase in elderly dependency negatively influenced GDP by 6.27% in 2010 and 8.88% in 2021, compared to 3% in 2000. Simultaneously, a 10% increase in the ratio of the population aged 30–49 to the rest of the working-age population raised GDP by 6.58% in 2000, 10.20% in 2010, and 4.73% in 2021. Thus, these results do not reject the hypothesis that the relationship between demographic and economic dynamics varies over time, place, and circumstances and, therefore, cannot be generalized but should be studied at different scales.