Mapeamento de risco e análise de estabilidade de movimentos de massa na comunidade São José do Jacó, Natal/RN

Abstract

Despite being natural processes of Earth's surface dynamics, mass movements could be accelerated or unleashed by anthropic interference. Inadequate occupation of areas highly susceptible to mass movement processes, are the principal cause of accidents associated with landslides in brazilian urban slopes, especially those occupied by settlements and slums. In Natal, RN, the existence of high declivity areas allied to inappropriate human occupation makes the municipality susceptible to slope stability issues. One of the areas dealing with this problem is the São José do Jacó community, where this work has focused. In that context, the present research aimed to map mass movements occurrence risk, as well as quantify the stability of slopes neighboring the São José do Jacó community. A semiquantitative model proposed by Faria (2011), which implement the multi-criteria evaluation technique AHP in a GIS system, was used for risk mapping. For slope stability analysis both deterministic and probabilistic approaches were applied, assisted by the software Slide version 7.0, developed by Rocscience. The risk analysis results show a critical hazard situation for the area residents, mostly related to the possibility of slide mass movements, with potential economic, environmental, and social losses. Considering the hypothetical condition of complete saturation, both deterministic and probabilistic stability analyses indicate the possibility of instability in sections 03 and 06. Simulations indicated stability in all other sections.