Ciclos econômicos e pagamentos de dividendos: um estudo no mercado brasileiro

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the behavior of the distribution of dividends of publicly traded Brazilian companies according to the effects of economic cycles, comparing the phases defined by Schumpeter (1935) with the NBER model. Noting that the studies of cycles with 4 phases are important because it seeks to observe more economic phases, thus contributing to the market (investors) who will have more information about the behavior of dividends. For this, information was collected from publicly traded companies listed on the B3 market infrastructure company between 1997 and 2021, a period that comprises the main crises in the Brazilian market: effect of the devaluation of the Real (1999), real estate crisis (2008) , the great Brazilian recession (2014-2016) and the crisis caused by the Covid pandemic (2019-2020). Data were obtained through the Thomson Reuters Refinitiv Eikon® database, using fixed panel data regression models to treat them. It was observed in the study that entities pay less dividends during the recession, contraction and recovery phases, however these payments are lower during the recession phase, a moment that can be understood as a cost containment, protecting the company's cash flow company.