Determinantes das concentrações industriais entre os estados brasileiros: uma análise PVAR no período de 2003 a 2014

Abstract

The industrial concentration is capable of influencing the characteristics of certain regions, sometimes constructive and sometimes destructive. It is important to notice that depending on the locality, some characteristics become predominant in attracting industries, such as productive traditions, ways of working and the profile of the consumers. The New Economic Geography Theory, whose main authors are Krugman (1991), Fujita (1989), Venables (1996) and Thisse (1996), approaches the effects of market location and, consequently, industrial agglomerations. The study of these authors is based on the Marshallian Trinity (knowledge overflow, input suppliers and worker specialization) and the Dixit-Stiglitz Monopolistic Competition Model, which examines how economies of scale, increasing returns and transport costs can encourage or sometimes justify the concentration of firms in certain localities. In the Brazilian case, Lautert and Araújo (2007), Silva and Bacha (2014) and Resende (2015) deal with issues involving industrial agglomerations. In this sense, this work will promote an analysis that investigates the factors that influenced the industrial concentration between the states of Brazil in the period that goes from 2003 to 2014. In order to achieve this goal, we will use the Ellison and Glaeser Concentration Index to measure the industrial concentration. The variables used to check the impacts of the concentration are the proxies, the influence of the government on the industrial concentration (ICMS rate), the knowledge overflow (years of study), externalities (firms' regional participation and firm competitiveness) and business cost (Transport costs). The data will be organized in panel form and an econometric model of Autorregressive Panel Vectors - PVAR will be elaborated, which will allow to study the dynamic relations and mechanisms of adjustments among the analyzed variables. As a data source, we used the data found in the Annual Social Information Ratio (RAIS), Demographic Census of the IBGE and Central Bank of Brazil. This study contributes to the literature by using an index that has not been explored at a national level and some new econometric tools for the study of industrial concentration. The results of the panel analysis indicate that among the variables used, those that presented the highest significance on industrial concentration are related to government influence and externalities. It was also verified that shocks related to knowledge overflow cause a positive impact on industrial concentration. We can therefore conclude that externalities and formal education are important factors when it comes to attracting industries in a region.