Fatores sociodemográficos associados às famílias brasileiras tomadoras de crédito habitacional: 2017-2018

Abstract

Housing is the most expensive asset for the urban worker. Due to disorderly urban growth, the housing deficit and the high cost of housing, the population of the middle and lower classes largely depend on public policies that facilitate access to and acquisition of home ownership. Through housing finance, the acquisition of long-term properties has become possible, since financial institutions grant credit for this purpose. However, this transaction brings a crucial factor called “risk”, which can be defined as a probability of occurrence or not of an event. Risk is an object of study in Actuarial Sciences, and with regard to the granting of credit, the analysis and management of financial risks is of paramount importance. The general objective of this monograph was to identify the sociodemographic factors associated with housing credit borrowing families in the period 2017-2018. The personality of this study is justified by the fact that socioeconomic and demographic factors such as population flows, family arrangements, the budgetary profile of families, among others, influence the search for housing credit as a way of acquiring real estate. To achieve the objective of this study, data from the Household Budget Survey (POF) from the most recent period (2017-2018) provided by the Brazilian Institute of Statistics and Geography (IBGE) were used. The database was read and manipulated using the R version 4.2.2 programming language. Among the main results of the descriptive analysis, it was tolerated that most residents lived in house-type households (89%), that residents living in their own households still paying were concentrated in the most improved regions of the country, in urban areas , and with an average total family income of R$ 8,610.70. Except for the “Other” category, in all categories of form of home acquisition, female residents predominated. The family arrangements “More than one adult with at least one child” (40.5%) and “One or more elderly people, with at least one adult, with or without children” (21.2%) were more common in own households already paid, and regarding the education of the household's reference person, in those own households still predominantly paying the “High School” category (36.3%). The main results obtained in the logistic regression analysis, showed that all the selected variables, except for the gender variable, were statistically significant and are factors associated both positively and negatively with families borrowing housing loans paid off or still paying. In general, the analyzes indicated that there are important socioeconomic and demographic differences depending on how the housing unit was acquired, especially between families that paid or were still paying for it. There were limitations regarding the analyzes carried out, since it was not possible to identify which borrowers used housing programs such as the PMCMV. In addition, the database includes several cohorts that experienced different moments of housing policy in Brazil, which may have affected the results. For a better analysis of the factors associated with families borrowing housing credit, it is suggested to use information from housing programs to study the specific characteristics of families benefiting from these public policies.