Indicadores socioeconômicos determinantes da condição financeira nos municípios brasileiros

Abstract

The continuous supply of quality public goods and services maintains a close relationship with the financial health of governments in their various spheres and, consequently, with public administration. Therefore, identifying whether a government is in a strong or weak financial condition can represent a potential indication that society's basic needs are being or will be met satisfactorily. The literature highlights that there are several factors that can affect the financial condition of a government, such as natural disasters, economic crises, political and social influences, etc. This research aims to analyze the extent to which socioeconomic indicators influence the financial condition of Brazilian municipalities in the period from 2018 to 2021. The construction of this work is based on the theory of government financial condition and uses the CAPAG score attributed by the STN as a model to classify the financial condition of municipalities. Considering the plurality of distinct and common characteristics among Brazilian municipalities, this work is justified on the premise that subnational governments have closer and more appropriate knowledge of local resources and needs. This is, therefore, exploratory research with a hypothetical-deductive methodological approach and a quantitative focus. It includes theoretical survey, identification of the financial condition of municipalities, collection and formation of indicators and statistical analysis. In the results, only the variable spent on investment - GINV was not significant in explaining the financial condition of Brazilian municipalities. The negative influence of the crime variables - CRIM and family bag - BFAM on the probability of obtaining a better classification of financial condition is highlighted. As a complementary contribution, it is highlighted that the presence of the accounting activity - ACONT is confirmed as influential, indicating that an increase in one unit of the variable increases the probability of a government being classified as having a strong financial condition by 5.6%. The complexity of the topic makes measurement and analysis challenging, being essential to provide information to managers and allow society to participate in the public management process.