A urgência na revisão do fundo de participação dos municípios à luz das mudanças demográficas no Brasil

Abstract

Intergovernmental transfers enable the provision of public services by subnational entities that, in many cases, have high financial dependence, especially with regard to municipalities. In this scenario, the volume of resources from the Municipal Participation Fund stands out as it exceeds that of other transfers in the country and is highly representative of municipal budgets. The main criterion for distributing the Municipal Participation Fund is population size, which causes a number of problems before the lack of factors to reflect the need for public investment. In this discussion, the incorporation of other indicators is reinforced, however the scenario of structural changes in the Brazilian population, caused by the demographic transition, has not become a government or research agenda. Thus, it is observed that the change in the age structure and the rate of population growth is in disagreement with the current criteria for distributing resources, which portrays the expectation of a demographic explosion, like Malthusian thinking. Therefore, the demand for fundraising would be proportionally related to the size of a population, although this relationship does not reflect the existing demand, given that the supply of public services and the amount of resources is also influenced by other factors, such as the age structure of the population. In light of this, the aim of this research is to analyze the direct and indirect effects of the demographic transition on the distribution of the Municipal Participation Fund. To this end, were used population data from the 2000, 2010 and 2022 Demographic Censuses and municipal projections up to 2030, prepared by the Laboratory of Population Estimates and Projections. In addition, the study used financial data for the municipalities from the National Treasury Secretariat for the years 2000, 2010 and 2022. The analysis shows that, although there were loopholes in the regulations for structural reformulations, after decades of changes to the legislation regulating the Fund, there were only palliative modifications. Even in the face of the intensification of the demographic transition, marked by population aging and population decline, which has had direct and indirect effects on the management of Municipal Participation Fund resources. The effects are related to the distribution of resources and the capacity of municipalities to promote public policies. From the above, it is clear an urgent to reformulate the, given the structural changes in the population, in order to take into account the imminent increase in population dependence and forms of state action consistent with local particularities.