Risco de desabastecimento hídrico no Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil

Abstract

Urban water shortages are a recurring socio-environmental disaster in Brazil, which mainly affects the semi-arid (Brazilian semi-arid) region, which has periodic droughts in its climatic behavior. The problems resulting from this disaster, today, are of a financial and material nature, with mortality of livestock, economic stagnation in the municipalities, and capital flight - companies, mainly agricultural, migrate to other territories failing to contribute to the municipality and generate jobs. Despite the current social and technological development of society, the losses and public investments related to the problem of water shortages continue to grow, denoting the population's vulnerability, with emphasis on the last drought period, between 2012-2017, which was a reference for this research. The hypothesis that the relationship between environmental, infrastructural, socioeconomic and state planning factors produces territories at risk of water shortages in RN, directed the research work, in which, the main purpose was to analyze the risk of water shortages in Rio Grande do Norte (RN) from the Water Shortage Risk Index (IRDH) generated by the system of socio-environmental indicators of risk to water shortages. In this context, the research was carried out qualitatively and quantitatively, evaluating and analyzing the risk of water shortages in the 153 municipalities of RN that make up the supply system carried out by the state concessionaire (representing 92% of the 167 municipalities in the state), in its seven water supply regions. This analysis was possible through the IRDH, which was structured in a systemic and grounded perspective, which structured 19 variables, corresponding to 4 indicators inherent to the factors present in the hypothesis. Five levels of risk were classified: ‘Very Low’; ‘Low’, ‘Medium’; 'High'; 'Very High'. The result of the Rio Grande do Norte IRDH proved the relationship between environmental, infrastructural, water planning and socioeconomic factors in the problem of water shortages, classifying 49% of the state's municipalities in the classes 'high' and 'very high' risk which puts them in a situation of greater attention as to the potential problems arising from water shortages, in addition to 40,5% 'medium' risk and 10% 'low' risk, there are no occurrences of 'very low' risk. In absolute values, 1 was classified as 'very high'; 74 classified as 'high'; 62 as ‘medium’; and 16 considered to be 'low' risk of water shortages, according to the IRDH classification. To reduce/mitigate the results of the IRDH in the state, actions and measures were proposed in each water supply region and the general analysis of Rio Grande do Norte.