Dinâmica geoespacial das usinas de energia eólica e solar fotovoltaica no nordeste brasileiro (1998-2023)

Abstract

The contemporary energy transition is a response to the demands of a changing world. Brazil is a protagonist in this scenario and the Northeast region is emerging as the main exponent of the energy transition in Brazilian territory. The area stands out for its natural conditions which are conducive to the generation of electricity from wind and solar power, making it possible to observe, throughout the first quarter of the 21st century, a rapid expansion of power generation plants in these segments. From this context, the concerns and motivations for carrying out this work are represented by the following questions: what were the milestones that characterized the implementation of wind and solar power plants in the Brazilian Northeast? What are the dynamics of the spatial distribution of wind and solar photovoltaic power plants in the Brazilian Northeast during the implementation process? And finally, based on the plants that have already been granted licenses and have not yet been completed, what are the prospects for the evolution of the implementation process of wind and solar photovoltaic power plants in the Brazilian Northeast? In order to elucidate these questions, the main objective of this dissertation is to develop a characterization of the implementation process of wind and solar photovoltaic power plants in the Brazilian Northeast, based on geospatial analysis through cartographic representation. For this purpose, point density analysis techniques were used to understand the dynamics of the spatial distribution of these plants over the period studied. As a result, a periodization was proposed for the implementation process of these plants, based on five time frames. It can also be seen that solar photovoltaic power plants have a spatial distribution pattern that tends towards dispersion, while wind power plants have a more concentrated distribution pattern. Furthermore, there is a gradual transition underway in the scenario of the leading role played by the two energy sources studied. The number of projects already licensed in the Brazilian Northeast as of December 2023 suggests that the number of plants and, consequently, the capacity of energy generated from the solar photovoltaic matrix, will significantly exceed the production of energy from the wind matrix as of 2024.