Análise de métodos para detecção de mudanças estruturais em séries temporais climáticas

Abstract

The time series analysis has played an increasingly important role in weather and climate studies. The success of these studies depends crucially on the knowledge of the quality of climate data such as, for instance, air temperature and rainfall data. For this reason, one of the main challenges for the researchers in this field is to obtain homogeneous series. A time series of climate data is considered homogeneous when the values of the observed data can change only due to climatic factors, i.e., without any interference from external non-climatic factors. Such non-climatic factors may produce undesirable effects in the time series, as unrealistic homogeneity breaks, trends and jumps. In the present work it was investigated climatic time series for the city of Natal, RN, namely air temperature and rainfall time series, for the period spanning from 1961 to 2012. The main purpose was to carry out an analysis in order to check the occurrence of homogeneity breaks or trends in the series under investigation. To this purpose, it was applied some basic statistical procedures, such as normality and independence tests. The occurrence of trends was investigated by linear regression analysis, as well as by the Spearman and Mann-Kendall tests. The homogeneity was investigated by the SNHT, as well as by the Easterling-Peterson and Mann-Whitney-Pettit tests. Analyzes with respect to normality showed divergence in their results. The von Neumann ratio test showed that in the case of the air temperature series the data are not independent and identically distributed (iid), whereas for the rainfall series the data are iid. According to the applied testings, both series display trends. The mean air temperature series displays an increasing trend, whereas the rainfall series shows an decreasing trend. Finally, the homogeneity tests revealed that all series under investigations present inhomogeneities, although they breaks depend on the applied test. In summary, the results showed that the chosen techniques may be applied in order to verify how well the studied time series are characterized. Therefore, these results should be used as a guide for further investigations about the statistical climatology of Natal or even of any other place.