Avaliação de simulações com o REGCM4.6 no estado do Rio Grande do Norte

Abstract

Numerical modeling studies of Earth systems are powerful tools for predicting and simulating the different variables of the climate system. However, they depend on the model's ability to resolve subgrid processes and for this, assessments at the local level are necessary. Therefore, the main objective of this work is to evaluate a simulation with a regional climate model based on data observed in situ of the variables daily precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature in four cities in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. A simulation was carried out with the RegCM4.6 model. The observational data comes from the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) network for the cities of Natal, Caicó, Santa Cruz and Mossoró for the period from January 1 to December 31, 2014. The simulation with RegCM4.6 was adequate for the precipitation in Natal, but it was difficult to capture the months 4 of maximum precipitation, underestimating the rainfall values in the cities of Caicó, Santa Cruz and Mossoró. The simulation followed the seasonal variation of the maximum and minimum temperature observed, although it was overestimated in all cities and with a lag in the minimum temperature for the city of Natal. Based on this study, we can highlight that the RegCM4.6 model obtained better statistical results in the dry period. Therefore, there is a need for more tests and a calibration process in the model to adequately simulate precipitation and temperature at the municipal level for this region.