A relação entre otimismo e ondas de fusão e aquisição: evidências do mercado brasileiro

Abstract

The reason for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) occur in waves is still a subject rarely explored in the financial literature, especially in a context of markets outside the USA and UK. Therefore, the present study investigates whether the optimism of the agents could led to a wave of M&A, using brazilian data from 2007 to 2017 about transactions and the entrepreneur confidence index (ICE), wich measure the optimism of the entrepreneurs with the current and future situation of the economy. I used Harford (2005)’s definition for a M&A wave. Using a Logit binary response model, the study pointed that optimism increases the probability of a wave of M&A. An increase of spread, that measures the market liquidity, increases the probability of occur M&A waves. Ibovespa was the variable that had the greater effect on the probabilities of an wave of M&A, an increase in the first one led to an increase of the probability of the second. The results were significant for all lags.