Segurança hídrica: infraestrutura de abastecimento e modelagem de criticidade municipal

Abstract

The water security of a country is achieved when its population has sustainable access to adequate quantities of quality water for development across various sectors. In the Brazilian context, characterized by significant climatic diversity, biodiversity, and land cover and use, measures aimed at ensuring minimum access to quality water and promoting water security have been institutionalized since the National Water Resources Policy (1997) up to the National Water Security Plan (2019). In this regard, it is necessary to dissect different variables of the water issue in order to create scenarios that allow us to model and analyze municipal criticality in this thematic area. Thus, this study aims to understand the criticality of Brazilian municipalities regarding the satisfaction of water resource demands and to relate the emergence of strategic interventions (completed, under construction, and planned) existing in the National Water Security Plan (NWSP). For this purpose, a methodology based on spatial modeling is employed, supported by Spatial Statistics Models and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) and Local Spatial Autocorrelation with clusters and outliers. These approaches prove to be important, particularly when seeking to understand the territorial reverberation of different variables. Consequently, the panorama of Brazilian water security was delineated based on the recurrence of disasters triggered by extreme events (drought, dry spells, floods, and flash floods), by the compromise of water sources for municipal supply (quantitative water balance), by the dynamics of water consumption for the development of various productive activities and social segments, by the dependence of rural communities on the Carro-Pipa Operation (CPO) for water supply, and by the existence of strategic interventions in different types (dams, canals, integration axes, and pipelines) within the NWSP. From this panorama, among the total number of Brazilian municipalities, two were identified in a "very critical" situation, 1,263 municipalities in a "critical" situation, and 595 municipalities in a "concerning" state. For 627 Brazilian municipalities, an amount of R$ 37.9 billion is projected, with a per capita investment of R$ 610.10, aimed at the development of strategic water infrastructures, primarily located in the Northeast region of Brazil.