Indústria manufatureira no Brasil: análise dinâmica do emprego, da especialização produtiva inter-regional e intra-nordestina entre 2007 e 2023

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to analyze the possible continuation of the process of regression of the manufacturing industry in Brazil, especially between 2007 and 2023, by observing the inter-regional dynamics of the shares in the national gross value added of manufacturing, as well as the intra-Northeastern dynamics of productive territorial specialization. The Autoregressive Vectors model is used to ascertain the responses of industrial employment and the analysis of indicators on productivity and territorial specialization. The conclusion is that manufacturing has regressed in all of Brazil's major regions, and that the commodities boom may have influenced the reprimarization of the export base and, consequently, of the productive structure. In addition, there is an apparent consolidation of manufacturing reconcentration in the South and Southeast, in particular. The dynamics of the Northeast show that only Bahia is more specialized in the production of technology-intensive manufactures, while Rio Grande do Norte is characterized by the production of more natural resource-based manufactures, the latter of which, together with the group of labour-intensive industries, are responsible for the specialization of the Northeast region.