Otimização de regra de operação de reservatórios do semiárido nordestino: ganhos e perdas no atendimento das demandas

Abstract

The Brazilian semiarid region is characterized by low rainfall rates, a crystalline substrate that hinders the formation of aquifers, and high temperatures that enhance the evaporation of surface water bodies. Due to these conditions, the region faces several social, environmental, and economic challenges caused by drought. To combat water scarcity, numerous reservoirs were constructed through dams to store water during rainy periods for use during droughts. Considering the importance of efficiently operating such reservoirs to prevent periods of severe water deficits, this study evaluates the impact of rationing on meeting demands for 41 reservoirs in the Piancó-Piranhas-Açu river basin. Among these, 29 experienced periods of water shortages. For this group, new water balances were simulated, incorporating an optimized hedging rule developed using a genetic algorithm. The results indicate that restricting water releases for non-priority uses can significantly reduce the risk of drought for priority uses, even during periods of low rainfall. Additionally, the optimization led to improvements in several performance indicators, demonstrating that rationing strategies tailored to the characteristics of each reservoir should be prioritized to mitigate extreme water scarcity events