Avaliação da eficiência operacional dos sistemas de abastecimento de água dos municípios do Rio Grande do Norte: uma aplicação do modelo dinâmico da análise envoltória de dados em um contexto de escassez hídrica

Abstract

The objective of this work is to propose a model to evaluate the water supply system of the Potiguar municipalities, which are served by the Companhia de Águas e Esgotos do Rio Grande do Norte (CAERN), in the operationalization of resources in the dry years (2010- 2015) by means of a dynamic modeling. The scenario of unsustainability observed in water reserves is a result of lack of awareness and unrestrained use of water resources. Population growth and climate change exacerbate this scenario. The negative effects of the lack of water are present throughout the national territory, especially in the semi-arid region, where impacts are observed more sharply. Thus, the Dynamic Data Envelopment Analysis model will be used to evaluate the context presented during a 5-year time window and measure the potential of the losses as sources of inefficiency. The sample includes 155 communes of all the mesoregions of the state. As a way of representing reality, the modeling adopted for the evaluation process considers 1 input variables, 2 output variables and 1 carry-over. The data needed to conduct this work were obtained through consultations with the National Information System on Sanitation. At the end of the work, it was possible to observe that the supply systems studied operate, for the most part, inefficiently. Only 6% of the municipalities obtained maximum scores in the overall analysis. Although the performance of the mesoregions is also not satisfactory, the municipalities of the Central Potiguar mesoregion have obtained better results, especially in 2013. Finally, it was possible to verify the negative potential of water losses and how this variable compromises the sustainability of the current system of supply of the cities of the State, which points out the necessity of a strategic planning to assist in the management of the resources.