Poder financeiro e eleições estaduais no Brasil em 2014, 2018 e 2022

Abstract

The relationship between political geography and accounting involves the analysis of how territorial space and power dynamics influence the distribution of financial resources during electoral periods. In this sense, the research aimed to analyze the importance of financial aspects in the majoritarian elections of the Brazilian Federative Units (UFs) in the 2014, 2018 and 2022 elections. Regarding the specific objectives, we sought to: identify the sources of fundraising for the majoritarian electoral campaigns of the UFs; analyze the composition of the expenditures of the majoritarian electoral campaigns of the UFs; and analyze the influence of independent and control variables on the success of the majoritarian electoral campaigns of the UFs. Our hypothesis is that the financial variable is a factor that influences electoral campaigns, enabling greater reach of voters and the electoral success of the candidates. Regarding the technical procedures, historical comparative analysis was adopted and the candidacies of those elected and not elected to the position of governor of the 27 UFs in the 2014, 2018 and 2022 elections were defined as the sample. The data collection was carried out through DivulgaCand (TSE). To verify the spatial behavior of the data through the location, interaction and representation of the phenomena, we used the open software Qgis version 3.32.0. The Logistic Regression (Logit) technique was used to construct the statistical model. As for the dependent variables, it was characterized as the candidates elected and not elected to the position of governor. For the independent variables, revenues and expenses, financial and non-financial, were used. As for the control variables, they were: reelection, gender, candidate's assets, IVS - infrastructure and per capita income. The results showed that the variable “total revenue” received by the candidates did not obtain a good level of significance, that is, it did not influence the case of the elected candidates. Likewise, the “financial income” variable did not obtain a good level of significance. Considering the “total expenditure” variable, it also did not obtain a good level of significance in the case of elected officials. However, the “financial expenditure” variable showed that the more they spend, the probability of being elected increases by 1%. Regarding the control variables, it can be identified that the “assets” of the candidates showed that the greater their resources, the greater the chance of success. Likewise, when a candidate seeks “reelection”, their chance ratio increases. In percentage terms, this increase represents a 15.14% greater chance of being elected. Regarding “gender”, it was identified that when the candidates are male, their chance ratio of success is greater. Regarding the “IVS - infrastructure dimension”, of the cities where the candidates lived during the election period, the higher this index, the greater their chance ratio of success. Likewise, the “per capita income” is also relevant, since the higher this indicator is in the states where candidates compete, the higher their chances of success increase by 1%. That said, the research hypothesis was answered, since we identified that the candidate who spends more has a 1% greater chance of success. Thus, the hypothesis tested was considered positive, together with the other variables. It is concluded that the proposed model provided sufficient support to analyze the importance of financial aspects in the majoritarian elections of the Brazilian states.