Análise espacial da mortalidade por homicídios de jovens do sexo masculino nos municípios da região nordeste, no período de 2012 a 2017

Abstract

Homicides in Brazil represent the first cause of death from external causes since the 1980s. In this scenario, there is a higher risk of death from this group of causes in people living in precarious conditions of infrastructure and social facilities, young (15-29 years), male, black or brown, with low education and little professional qualification. Studies have correlated deaths from homicide and involvement with crime with the age structure of the population.Thusregions that show an absolute and relative increase in young cohorts compared to the adult population without state investments in public policy show increased rates criminality and homicides, because there is the so-called cohort discontinuity in which members of the broad cohorts will have greater difficulty in accessing the educational structure and the labor market. In our country until the late 1990s, there were the highest homicide mortality rates in the metropolitan regions of the most developed geographic regions. However, from the 2000s onwards there was an internalization and dissemination of violence to other locations in Brazil, highlighting the sharp increase in homicides in the states of the Northeast. This work aims to analyze the spatial pattern of homicide mortality among men in the five-year age groups of 10 to 29 years, located in the municipalities of the Northeast Region, from 2012 to 2014 and 2015 to 2017, as well as its correlation with socioeconomic and demographic variables. This is an ecological study of spatial analysis, whose population will consist of homicide deaths in young men (10 to 29 years old) that occurred in the municipalities of the Northeast region, from 2012 to 2014 and 2015 to 2017. Death records was extracted from the Mortality Information System of the SUS Computer Department (SIM / DATASUS). Due to the large proportion of deaths classified as events whose intention is undetermined,generating estimates of underestimated homicide mortality, the present study corrected the deaths according to the methodology proposed by Borges and Cano (2012). Underreporting of deaths, crude mortality rates, specific for age group, were calculated. Then, the rectification of the coverage of deaths was carried out by correction factors resulting from the active search in the study developed by Szwarcwald et al. (2010). In addition, the rates were standardized by the Brazilian male population in 2010 andsmoothed by the Empirical Bayesian Estimator. It was also analyzed the presence of spatial correlation of mortality rates through the Moran Global Index and LISA, univariate and bivariate. As a result, homicide mortality rates in young men in the Northeast Region were recorded at 12.26 and 14.03 homicides per 10,000 men, in each three-year period. Obtaining an average of 7.78 (6.19) and a median of 5.77 per 10,000 men, in the period from 2012 to 2014 and in the following period, an average of 10.98 (7.17) and a median of 10.98 per 10,000 men. In this way, it is perceived that the highest rates for this cause are about six times higher than the rate in the northeast. They were found in the municipality of Simões Filho in the state of BA, with 50.55 per 10,000 men, in the first three years and in the second three years, located in the municipality of Saubara also in Bahia, with 61.18 per 10,000 men.In addition to the High-Low clustersfound in the Northeast Region that portray the internalization and spread of violence, since they characterize high rates in this part with the surroundings with low rates. Another point that describes the phenomenon of the spread of violence was to observe that rural rates increase from period to another.Finally, this work reinforces the importance of reporting homicide records in order to provide incentives for the elaboration of public policies, in addition to highlighting the fight against violence through intersectoral actions